At a time when the growth rate of the internet industry is generally slowing down, a research institution named "Youyoucao" has quietly entered the public eye. Recently, Youyoucao, focusing on internet research, released its Q3 2024 "Internet Scenario-Based Competition Trends Report," which quickly sparked heated discussions in the tech and investment circles. Unlike previous analyses centered on macro data, Youyoucao this time turned its lens to the micro perspective of "scenarios," putting forward a sharp viewpoint: traffic dividends have completely peaked, and the core battlefield of the internet's second half is shifting from "grabbing users" to "grabbing scenarios."
This report is not凭空而来. According to the Youyoucao team, they spent three months tracking the usage behavior of over 260 million mobile devices. After filtering out invalid clicks and bot traffic, they discovered an alarming fact: the daily active user growth rate of top-tier apps has dropped to single digits, and the average daily user time spent has declined quarter-over-quarter for the first time after six consecutive quarters of slight increases. This means that the model of driving growth solely through user acquisition and extending online time has become ineffective.
"We noticed that users are no longer loyal to a specific app, but to a specific 'instant need,'" said Youyoucao's chief analyst at the report's press conference. Taking the high-frequency scenario of "eating" as an example: in the past, users would open Meituan or Ele.me to place an order directly. But now, a user might jump to a food delivery page after watching a short food video, or open a mini-program because of a recommendation in a social group chat. This fragmented behavior of "scenario as an entry point" is eroding the moats of traditional apps.
Another key finding from Youyoucao's focused internet research is that the "scenario closed loop" is becoming a new growth lever. The report points out that products capable of seamlessly integrating information streams, social chains, and transaction chains often achieve higher user conversion rates. For example, an online music platform transformed its comment section into an "emotional tree hole" and embedded ticket purchasing links for offline concerts, resulting in a roughly 37% increase in user payment conversion. The logic behind this is: users are no longer satisfied with a single tool attribute; they crave a "one-stop" experiential fulfillment within specific scenarios.
However, the report also warns of the risks brought by scenario-based competition. As internet companies vie for every fragment of users' time, issues of privacy boundaries and information overload have become unprecedentedly severe. In its data tracking, Youyoucao found that some applications excessively access location information or force authorization to read photo albums. While these practices improve the accuracy of scenario matching in the short term, they are eroding user trust in the long run.
"Scenario-based competition is not about spying on users, but understanding them," the Youyoucao team emphasized at the end of the report. They suggest that companies shift their focus from "technology-driven precise targeting" to "value-driven scenario co-creation"—for instance, refraining from popping up video ads when a user wants to read quietly, or pushing soothing white noise instead of shopping promotions when a user is lying awake at night. This kind of "restraint" could itself become a new competitive advantage.
As of press time, several leading internet companies have proactively contacted Youyoucao, hoping to obtain more detailed scenario analysis data. A product director who spoke on condition of anonymity admitted to reporters: "In the past, we were obsessed with DAU (Daily Active Users). Now Youyoucao tells us that scenario penetration rate might be a more worthy metric to watch." This industry introspection sparked by a single report may well signal a turning point for China's internet industry, moving from "extensive expansion" to "intensive scenario cultivation."